Farmer’s Almanac Forecast Falls Short

The Almanac's January forecast called for above average temperatures.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac is a trusted weather source for many. The folks at the Almanac have been using a secret method to make long-range forecasts for over 200 years. These forecasts predict active weather patterns, extreme temperatures, and powerful storms.

According to the The Farmer’s Almanac website, the forecasts are derived from a secret formula that was created by Almanac founder Robert B. Thomas way back in 1792. Three scientific disciplines are employed to make the long-range predictions: solar science, climatology, and meteorology. The formula predicts weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.

But just how accurate has this method been recently? Let’s take a look back at the past three months in our area.

The Farmers Almanac forecast for November indicated we would be slightly warmer and wetter than normal (+1° and +0.5″). We actually ended up much cooler and drier than average. Temperatures were more than 3 degrees below normal (-3.3°) and we were under by over an inch of precipitation (-1.63″). For December, The Almanac predicted temperatures 3 degrees below average with slightly wetter-than-normal conditions (+0.5″). We did, in fact, end up cooler and wetter than average by 1.7° degrees and 0.09″ of precipitation, respectively.

Now let’s take a look at January. The Almanac predicted significantly warmer conditions (+3.5°) with above average precipitation (+0.5″). The precipitation outlook may be on track (we’re currently at +0.49″), but we’ve been much much colder than the Almanac predicted. In fact, temperatures have been below average by more than 8 degrees for the month so far (-8.2° to be exact). In fact, we currently rank as the 10th coldest January, and 9th coldest winter, on record here in The Summit City! And with such cold conditions, snow ratios have been much higher, putting us just a tenth of an inch shy of snowiest January (currently received 29.4″ of snow).

With stats like these, it drives home the importance of watching the Live Doppler 15 Fury Weather Team!

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